San Mateo County Real Estate Market Update | January 2026

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home in San Mateo County in 2026?

Early 2026 is shaping up to be a favorable time to both buy and sell in San Mateo County, depending on your goals. Mortgage rates have dropped to around 6.16%, near a two-year low, which is helping bring buyers back into the market. At the same time, home prices remain near record highs, with Q4 2025 median house prices up about 4.3% year over year. Limited inventory and renewed demand suggest a competitive spring market ahead.

Key Takeaways

• A strong start to 2026: Mortgage rates near 6.16%, close to multi-year lows, are bringing renewed confidence and momentum back into the San Mateo County market.

  
  

• Home values remain resilient: Median house prices held near record highs, with Q4 2025 showing ~4.3% year-over-year growth, reinforcing long-term value and stability.

  
  

• Spring outlook is encouraging: With limited inventory and improving buyer sentiment, the market is well positioned for an active and competitive spring season.

What the Latest Data Is Telling Us

As we move into 2026, the San Mateo County real estate market is being shaped by three major forces: improving interest rates, strong household wealth, and persistent housing scarcity.

After a volatile start to 2025 driven by economic and political uncertainty, financial markets rebounded sharply. By early January 2026, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were significantly higher year over year, restoring confidence among affluent buyers—an important driver in San Mateo County’s housing market.

At the same time, mortgage interest rates for 30-year conforming loans declined steadily through late 2025, landing at approximately 6.16% in early January 2026. While rates still vary by borrower and property, this drop has meaningfully improved purchasing power compared to last year.

On the pricing side, San Mateo County continues to demonstrate long-term strength. The median house price for 2025 rose about 1.5% from 2024, reaching a new all-time annual high near $2,000,000. Short-term fluctuations remain normal, but historically, prices tend to peak in Q2 (spring)—a pattern that may repeat this year.

Market Highlights at a Glance

• Mortgage rates: ~6.16%, near a two-year low

• Price growth: +4.3% YoY in Q4 2025 for median house prices

• Long-term trend: 2025 marked a new all-time high for annual median house prices

What This Means for Buyers

Lower interest rates are drawing more buyers off the sidelines, particularly those who postponed moves during 2024–2025. While competition is increasing, today’s environment offers better financing conditions and more predictable pricing than last spring. Acting early—before peak spring demand—can provide a strategic advantage.

What This Means for Sellers

For homeowners, prices remain near historic highs, and inventory levels are still relatively low. When demand rises faster than new listings, well-positioned homes often see strong interest. Sellers who prepare early and price strategically may benefit from the seasonal upswing ahead.

San Mateo Market FAQs

1. Are home prices in San Mateo County still rising?

Yes. While growth has moderated from pandemic-era spikes, median house prices rose about 4.3% year over year in Q4 2025, and annual prices hit a new record in 2025.

2. Will mortgage rates continue to fall in 2026?

No one can predict rates with certainty, but as of January 2026, rates are near multi-year lows. Even small changes can impact affordability, which is why timing matters.

3. Is spring really the best time to sell?

Historically, yes. Data shows median prices often peak in Q2, when buyer demand typically outpaces new listings.

Ready to Talk About Your Next Move?

Every home—and every goal—is different. Whether you’re thinking about selling, buying, or simply want to understand what these trends mean for your neighborhood, we’re here to help. Reach out for a personalized San Mateo County market analysis, and let’s make your next move a confident one.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home in San Mateo County in 2026?

Early 2026 is shaping up to be a favorable time to both buy and sell in San Mateo County, depending on your goals. Mortgage rates have dropped to around 6.16%, near a two-year low, which is helping bring buyers back into the market. At the same time, home prices remain near record highs, with Q4 2025 median house prices up about 4.3% year over year. Limited inventory and renewed demand suggest a competitive spring market ahead.

Key Takeaways

• A strong start to 2026: Mortgage rates near 6.16%, close to multi-year lows, are bringing renewed confidence and momentum back into the San Mateo County market.

  
  

• Home values remain resilient: Median house prices held near record highs, with Q4 2025 showing ~4.3% year-over-year growth, reinforcing long-term value and stability.

  
  

• Spring outlook is encouraging: With limited inventory and improving buyer sentiment, the market is well positioned for an active and competitive spring season.

What the Latest Data Is Telling Us

As we move into 2026, the San Mateo County real estate market is being shaped by three major forces: improving interest rates, strong household wealth, and persistent housing scarcity.

After a volatile start to 2025 driven by economic and political uncertainty, financial markets rebounded sharply. By early January 2026, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were significantly higher year over year, restoring confidence among affluent buyers—an important driver in San Mateo County’s housing market.

At the same time, mortgage interest rates for 30-year conforming loans declined steadily through late 2025, landing at approximately 6.16% in early January 2026. While rates still vary by borrower and property, this drop has meaningfully improved purchasing power compared to last year.

On the pricing side, San Mateo County continues to demonstrate long-term strength. The median house price for 2025 rose about 1.5% from 2024, reaching a new all-time annual high near $2,000,000. Short-term fluctuations remain normal, but historically, prices tend to peak in Q2 (spring)—a pattern that may repeat this year.

Market Highlights at a Glance

• Mortgage rates: ~6.16%, near a two-year low

• Price growth: +4.3% YoY in Q4 2025 for median house prices

• Long-term trend: 2025 marked a new all-time high for annual median house prices

What This Means for Buyers

Lower interest rates are drawing more buyers off the sidelines, particularly those who postponed moves during 2024–2025. While competition is increasing, today’s environment offers better financing conditions and more predictable pricing than last spring. Acting early—before peak spring demand—can provide a strategic advantage.

What This Means for Sellers

For homeowners, prices remain near historic highs, and inventory levels are still relatively low. When demand rises faster than new listings, well-positioned homes often see strong interest. Sellers who prepare early and price strategically may benefit from the seasonal upswing ahead.

San Mateo Market FAQs

1. Are home prices in San Mateo County still rising?

Yes. While growth has moderated from pandemic-era spikes, median house prices rose about 4.3% year over year in Q4 2025, and annual prices hit a new record in 2025.

2. Will mortgage rates continue to fall in 2026?

No one can predict rates with certainty, but as of January 2026, rates are near multi-year lows. Even small changes can impact affordability, which is why timing matters.

3. Is spring really the best time to sell?

Historically, yes. Data shows median prices often peak in Q2, when buyer demand typically outpaces new listings.

Ready to Talk About Your Next Move?

Every home—and every goal—is different. Whether you’re thinking about selling, buying, or simply want to understand what these trends mean for your neighborhood, we’re here to help. Reach out for a personalized San Mateo County market analysis, and let’s make your next move a confident one.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell a Home in San Mateo County in 2026?

Early 2026 is shaping up to be a favorable time to both buy and sell in San Mateo County, depending on your goals. Mortgage rates have dropped to around 6.16%, near a two-year low, which is helping bring buyers back into the market. At the same time, home prices remain near record highs, with Q4 2025 median house prices up about 4.3% year over year. Limited inventory and renewed demand suggest a competitive spring market ahead.

Key Takeaways

• A strong start to 2026: Mortgage rates near 6.16%, close to multi-year lows, are bringing renewed confidence and momentum back into the San Mateo County market.

  
  

• Home values remain resilient: Median house prices held near record highs, with Q4 2025 showing ~4.3% year-over-year growth, reinforcing long-term value and stability.

  
  

• Spring outlook is encouraging: With limited inventory and improving buyer sentiment, the market is well positioned for an active and competitive spring season.

What the Latest Data Is Telling Us

As we move into 2026, the San Mateo County real estate market is being shaped by three major forces: improving interest rates, strong household wealth, and persistent housing scarcity.

After a volatile start to 2025 driven by economic and political uncertainty, financial markets rebounded sharply. By early January 2026, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were significantly higher year over year, restoring confidence among affluent buyers—an important driver in San Mateo County’s housing market.

At the same time, mortgage interest rates for 30-year conforming loans declined steadily through late 2025, landing at approximately 6.16% in early January 2026. While rates still vary by borrower and property, this drop has meaningfully improved purchasing power compared to last year.

On the pricing side, San Mateo County continues to demonstrate long-term strength. The median house price for 2025 rose about 1.5% from 2024, reaching a new all-time annual high near $2,000,000. Short-term fluctuations remain normal, but historically, prices tend to peak in Q2 (spring)—a pattern that may repeat this year.

Market Highlights at a Glance

• Mortgage rates: ~6.16%, near a two-year low

• Price growth: +4.3% YoY in Q4 2025 for median house prices

• Long-term trend: 2025 marked a new all-time high for annual median house prices

What This Means for Buyers

Lower interest rates are drawing more buyers off the sidelines, particularly those who postponed moves during 2024–2025. While competition is increasing, today’s environment offers better financing conditions and more predictable pricing than last spring. Acting early—before peak spring demand—can provide a strategic advantage.

What This Means for Sellers

For homeowners, prices remain near historic highs, and inventory levels are still relatively low. When demand rises faster than new listings, well-positioned homes often see strong interest. Sellers who prepare early and price strategically may benefit from the seasonal upswing ahead.

San Mateo Market FAQs

1. Are home prices in San Mateo County still rising?

Yes. While growth has moderated from pandemic-era spikes, median house prices rose about 4.3% year over year in Q4 2025, and annual prices hit a new record in 2025.

2. Will mortgage rates continue to fall in 2026?

No one can predict rates with certainty, but as of January 2026, rates are near multi-year lows. Even small changes can impact affordability, which is why timing matters.

3. Is spring really the best time to sell?

Historically, yes. Data shows median prices often peak in Q2, when buyer demand typically outpaces new listings.

Ready to Talk About Your Next Move?

Every home—and every goal—is different. Whether you’re thinking about selling, buying, or simply want to understand what these trends mean for your neighborhood, we’re here to help. Reach out for a personalized San Mateo County market analysis, and let’s make your next move a confident one.

Source: compass.com

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National and regional statistics are generalities, essentially summaries generated by thousands of unique, individual listings and sales occurring across different market segments. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, and last period data should be considered preliminary estimates which may be revised in future updates. Different analytics programs sometimes define standard statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: What is most meaningful are not specific numeric calculations but the trends they illustrate. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors, and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate, and how these analyses apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.  

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.