San Mateo County Real Estate Market Update | December 2025

Is San Mateo Still a Smart Market to Buy or Sell in 2026?

Yes — San Mateo remains a strong market in 2026, but with nuanced conditions buyers and sellers should understand. The late-2025 slowdown followed normal seasonal patterns, with fewer listings and softer activity, yet well-priced homes continued selling quickly and competitively. As the market resets in early 2026, demand typically rises sharply from mid-January into spring. Lower mortgage rates, improving stock indices, and stabilizing inflation expectations also support renewed activity. For motivated buyers, December–January offers the most negotiation leverage; for sellers, early spring still captures the highest momentum.

Main Highlights

• San Mateo’s winter slowdown is underway, with November data showing sharp drops in new listings and sales — but 3-BR and 4-BR homes continue to dominate demand, making up 2,852 combined sales over the past 12 months.

• Buyers still have leverage this season: mortgage rates are hovering near a 14-month low, and December is historically the moment when motivated sellers negotiate most.

• Looking ahead, early 2026 is positioned for a rebound as demand typically surges mid-January, supported by stabilizing financial markets and a countywide median house price that rose 1.5% year over year as of November.

Market Context & Commentary

The market’s November contraction was expected — mid-winter typically brings the sharpest declines in new listings and sales. December often becomes the most negotiable month for buyers, especially on homes accumulating longer days-on-market. Yet, new listings that launch with strong pricing and professional presentation still outperform, often receiving offers above asking.

As we shift toward the 2026 market, demand is expected to rebuild from mid-January through spring, mirroring the pattern seen in early 2025 before the “tariff shock” disrupted momentum in April. This report reviews the latest indicators through November; the January update will examine 2025 as a full-year trend cycle.

Financial conditions are also stabilizing. The first week of December saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq regain much of November’s losses. Meanwhile, the 30-year mortgage rate is near a 14-month low — a meaningful psychological and financial boost for buyers. Consumer confidence ticked upward (though still historically low), and attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut and the upcoming inflation report. All of these elements suggest a cautiously optimistic setup as San Mateo enters 2026.

San Mateo Market FAQs

1. When is the best time to buy in San Mateo in 2026?

Historically, December through January offers the most negotiating power, especially for homes sitting longer on the market. Early spring brings more competition.

2. Will inventory improve in early 2026?

Yes. San Mateo traditionally sees a meaningful rise in new listings beginning mid-January and building into March and April.

3. What property types dominate San Mateo sales?

3- and 4-bedroom homes lead by a wide margin, reflecting strong family demand and limited supply in these categories.

Thinking about buying or selling in San Mateo in 2026? We’d be happy to help you interpret today’s data and design a strategy tailored to your goals — whether you’re preparing for the early-spring surge or exploring off-season opportunities.

Source: compass.com

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National and regional statistics are generalities, essentially summaries generated by thousands of unique, individual listings and sales occurring across different market segments. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, and last period data should be considered preliminary estimates which may be revised in future updates. Different analytics programs sometimes define standard statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: What is most meaningful are not specific numeric calculations but the trends they illustrate. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors, and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate, and how these analyses apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.  

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.